Dean grassroots: Please don't be discouraged

Dean supporters can still make a powerful difference by supporting the only truly antiwar candidate left in the race and actively campainging for a win.

Dean grassroots: Please don't be discouraged

Dear Howard Dean supporters,

I know that this is a difficult time for you when the candidate that led your movement to reclaim America has ended his active campaigning for the nomination. I know what it means to have devoted hours upon hours, day after day, week after week, and month after month, at the expense of any semblance to normal life, to a cause that one passionately believes in.

I want to write to you and reach out to you because I believe that the task of reclaiming our democracy still lies ahead. The corporate controlled media that played a central and crucial role in derailing the Dean movement is now trying to convince everyone that the Democratic nomination race for all practical purposes is over. They are trying to convince people to go along with the front-runner by giving the impression that it is the only option available to them. The truth is that the race is in fact not over, and John Kerry has not won yet, and will probably not win according to my analyses.

Kerry currently stands with 495 pledged delegates, out of the 3520 total delegates that can be won through the primaries. Kerry's opponents currently have a total of 339 delegates. The final nominee needs to have 2161 delegates to secure the nomination. Kerry needs 1666 additional pledged delegates to have the nomination locked up. There are still 2686 pledged delegates that have not been voted on or awarded to anyone. That means Kerry still has to get 62% of the remaining delegates to lock up the nomination. Additionally there are 801 super-delegates, who are free to vote any which way they like at the actual nominating convention in July. It is still possible for someone other than Kerry to get to the finish line. It is also possible that none of the candidates will get the required 2161 delegates, leading to the situation of a brokered convention. In a brokered convention the candidate going in with the most momentum and the candidate that convinces the most delegates at the convention that he/she represents the best interests of the Democratic Party and has the best shot at beating George Bush is most likely to win the nomination at the convention.

I would also like to present my brief analyses of the situation on the ground and what I expect to happen in the future. Currently Kerry is the undisputed front-runner. He has won the most states and has the largest number of delegates. The media has prematurely proclaimed him to be a sure shot, or at worst in a two-way race with Edwards. Things can't get any better for him. But they can certainly get worse. Being a front-runner is a very vulnerable position to be in. He suffers from the same risks that any front-runner does. He has Edwards close on his heels. Edwards has momentum going forward after Wisconsin, while Kerry has lost much of his momentum. Although he won in Wisconsin, he got only a narrow lead over Edwards. The media will give increasing coverage as well as scrutiny to Edwards, as is typical in their horse race like coverage of the primaries. Since Edwards doesn't have a long enough track record in politics, it will be harder for the media to dig up as much dirt on him. I expect that as Edwards' media coverage increases, so too will his poll ratings as well as his performance in the subsequent primaries, possibly knocking the Kerry train off the tracks. During this whole time, I fully expect the media to continue ignoring the existence of the Kucinich campaign, the fact that he is still actively campaigning, and that he is not out despite their attempts to derail him.

Then there is the situation of money. As of January 31st, Kucinich had $2.6 million cash on hand, Kerry had $1.6 million, Edwards had $275 thousand, and Sharpton had $7 thousand. Dean had the largest amount at $9.6 million, which I'm guessing will be useful to his movement in the new PAC that he is considering forming.

At this point, Kerry has the highest burn rate of money, and will quickly run out, unless he can sustain a healthy fundraising from his supporters. His campaign also has a loan of around $6 million that it owes to John Kerry who mortgaged his home in Boston to provide that loan to his campaign. If he has trouble raising funds to keep him in the race, he will have even more trouble raising funds to pay off his campaign debt, which he secured by mortgaging his home. The fact that he has opted out of FEC public funding also hurts his ability to maximize his fundraising. It's true that he now has no spending limits, but where is that money going to come from?

John Edwards has even less money than Kerry, but his increasing momentum should help him raise just enough to stay in the race. His eligibility for FEC matching funds will allow him to get additional leverage out his donations as well.

Dennis Kucinich has the most amount of money at hand of the remaining candidates and has the lowest burn rate. He is also eligible for FEC matching funds and thus can get maximum leverage out of his contributions. He is still successfully raising more money from his supporters, despite the near complete media blackout. It is quite safe to assume that he will have enough funds to keep actively campaigning all the way to the convention in July. If one looks at just the amount of money on hand as the only criteria, Dennis Kucinich is the new front-runner.

Although Dean ran an amazing campaign, which will be credited in history books as having transformed politics and campaigning, he was forced into a premature ending of his campaign for President. The media viciously attack Dean and relentlessly hammered Dean to the point that he was labeled unelectable and eventually forced to withdraw from the race. The circumstances are well known to all Dean supporters as well as anybody with common sense to see what was going on. Despite this, Dean has contributed to keeping the issues that concern ordinary Americans in the mainstream political debates and caused the other candidates to take up those issues too, which they might not have otherwise. Dean can be credited with bringing a lot of new people concerned about their country into politics and taught them that they can change their country and that their voice matters. This movement, and power, must not be allowed to end, even if Dean is no longer actively campaigning for the nomination.

Just like the Dean supporters have experienced and know first hand how the media will conspire to keep issues out of politics and to trivialize political debate into a horse race, rather than a critical discussion based on issues, they have kept another brave and honest candidate out of the public spotlight because he too, just like Howard Dean, speaks the truth. The truth is like Kryptonite to the media and their bosses. Just like the media has caused irreparable harm to the Dean movement for representing the aspirations of ordinary people and speaking the truth, the same media has also tried to cause irreparable harm to the Kucinich movement by either keeping it hidden away, or if they do provide any coverage, it does not vary from the theme of him being a fringe and a long shot candidate, or some other trivial matter such as his personal romantic life. What about the issues? I hope some of you can see that Kucinich is a victim of the media just as Howard Dean is.

Just like Howard Dean, Dennis Kucinich is continuing the fight for the progressive agenda. He is not like a typical politician that operates through lies and deception, but rather through a refreshing honesty about what troubles are hurting our society. So far, he has not been forced out of the race, and his campaign is still in place on the ground in all the remaining and he is on the ballot in all the remaining states, where his campaign will keep working to bring the voters out. My prediction is that John Kerry will be losing his momentum pretty soon, after failing to win over 50% of the delegates so far, and in several successive states yet to come, and his financial troubles will not become any better. This will leave Edwards, Kucinich and Sharpton in the race for the nomination. Sharpton will remain in the race all the way to the convention simply because he is the only progressive candidate who has shown consistent ability to pick up delegates in black population areas and solidify the black voter bloc. Although he is most definitely a long shot for the nomination, he might have some impact in determining who the final nominee is going to be. This leaves the field wide open between Edwards and Kucinich. To progressive democrats the choice between these two candidates should be quite clear. Although a populist to some extent, Edwards is no match compared to Kucinich in terms of platform, and if Kucinich picks up just enough delegates to keep Edwards from locking up the nomination, it will lead to the situation of a brokered convention, where Kucinich will have as much chance as any of the remaining candidates to get the nomination. At this point, Dean supporters have the choice of voting for either Dean in the primaries, or for one of the other four candidates that is remaining in the field. It is something that Dean supporters need to discuss amongst themselves to come to the best decision about their course of action. The end goal would be to send progressive delegates to the convention. One thing to keep in mind would be that if Dean is unlikely to get 15% of the vote required to establish viability and qualify for delegates, then it is better in that situation to vote for another candidate so as to have the vote count towards actual delegates. In such a situation, my suggestion would be to vote for Dennis Kucinich, who has lined up very progressive delegates to represent him at the Democratic Party National Convention.

I would like to extend my hand of friendship on behalf of the Kucinich movement and ask the Dean supporters to join us in working to get progressive delegates elected to the national convention. I know that this has been a very competitive primary campaign season where a lot of feet have been trampled upon and lot of feelings hurt on both sides. These sorts of feelings lead to bruised egos and can get in the way of reconciliation and working together for a greater cause. For the sake of working together to reclaim America from corporate warmongers, I ask that we bury the hatchet rather than beat each other on the head with it. The movement that we are all a part of is not about you or me, nor Dean or Kucinich, it is about us, the human race, and about our continued survival.

There is too much at stake to let the media decide who our next president is going to be. The whole world is looking at the outcome of the US elections for the very sake of the survival of our only planet Earth. The war and occupation in Iraq still continues, the jobs in American keep being outsourced while corporations are continually allowed to keep exploiting foreign workers, millions of Americans are still without health care, and the list goes on and on.

The reasons for why Dean's candidacy was relevant and important are still true today. The task of reclaiming our democracy still lies ahead. Dennis Kucinich is still in the trenches fighting to prevent the media from deciding the nominee. The plan of the Dean movement for the progressive transformation of the Democratic Party as well as helping to elect Democratic candidates to Congress is commendable. But in addition to that, there is still a great need to keep fighting to get a progressive candidate nominated on the Democratic Party ticket. I don't believe that Edwards or Kerry meet that qualification.

I urge and request you all to take a closer second look at Dennis Kucinich. If you have time to check out only one resource, then I would recommend watching his speech to the King County Democrats in Seattle, WA. It is one of his most inspiring speeches and clearly outlines his platform and stand on various issues, and his vision for America. I am convinced that you will be moved and impressed. It is available at the following site:
http://www.kucinich-washington.org/videos/kcdems56.ram

Additional information on the issues is available on his website and I encourage everyone to at least sign-up to keep themselves aware of what is going on in the campaign of the only remaining progressive alternative in the race:
http://www.kucinich.us/

The reason I feel confident in asking for your help and support of Dennis Kucinich is because I believe in my heart that Dennis is an honest and trustworthy candidate who will work hard for issues of importance to us, and not sell out to corporate interests that dominate the politics in our country. We are all a part of the larger movement of the people’s struggle to bring about a just and peaceful world with respect for the social, civil and economic rights for everyone. Let us join our forces, so that we don’t get dispersed and keep fighting for our common cause. Another reason to support Dennis Kucinich in the primaries is that he is the most electable candidate left in the race. His stand on the issues finds strong resonance among Democratic Party activists and is the most progressive of all the candidates. With the risk of Ralph Nader running an aggressive campaign and potentially costing Democrats some lost votes, it is even more important for the Democratic Party to nominate Dennis Kucinich. Kucinich’s platform is nearly identical to the Green Party platform and both the Green Party and Nader have said that they will not run a Presidential campaign if Dennis Kucinich is the Democratic Nominee. It is vitally important that we defeat Bush in November and Dennis Kucinich has the best chance of doing that.

Hope is still alive, and as long as we the people keep fighting, we will win. Remember, your vote is your treasure, and it is yours alone. Don’t let others, especially the media, dictate to you how to cast it, but rather let it be a choice that you make using your conscience, heart and mind.

Finally, I invite you to join our local Rochester online community of Kucinich supporters. We are an enthusiastic group of Kucinich supporters and we will be very happy to have you aboard:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/KucinichRochester/

I have been paying close attention to what Howard Dean has been saying and one of his best lines that still holds true is that you have the power. This is a fact that does not ever change, and no body can take that power away from you. You made the Howard Dean movement the power that it is, and you still have that power. Always hold on to your power and don’t be afraid to use it.

In Peace and Solidarity,
Tayyab Siddiqui,
tayyab@siddiqui.com
East Coast Coordinator of Muslims for Kucinich.

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Here is a message from Dennis Kucinich that he sent to Howard Dean and his supporters:

I want to congratulate Gov. Dean on his campaign, his energy, his integrity, and his courage.

I am proud that Gov. Dean stands with me on so many issues: the urgency of bringing our troops home from Iraq, the critical need to provide health care to all our citizens, jobs, education, and hope for a better future. Together, we stand beneath that progressive banner, and, whatever role he chooses to play in the continuing dialogue, I intend to keep those dreams alive in my campaign.

To his supporters, I would say this: "If you love Howard Dean, you'll love Dennis Kucinich, too." If you are in touch with Dean supporters, please share this message with them.

We embrace and echo Gov. Dean's challenge to continue working for change in the Democratic Party and to take back the government of this nation so that it works for the benefit of its citizens, not its self-serving special interests and entrenched political power structure.

His grassroots supporters, like ours, represent a remarkable diversity of ages, races, and creeds - all united in the belief that government must change, and CAN change, if we commit ourselves, heart and soul, to that effort.

We must not abandon that vision, but rather, take it to the streets, to the meeting places, to the ballot boxes, and then on to the convention this summer where our vision can become the rebirth and renewal of the Democratic Party. I look forward to talking with Gov. Dean about the future of our Party.

Dennis Kucinich
February 18, 2004